I personally think that Microsoft should have gone somewhere new with the console rather than conforming to the motion sensor market that seems to be open nowadays. We already have the Wii (and now the PS3) which do the EXACT same thing, so they would have probably gained a larger revenue if they have produced something different and unique. So in a sense I think it will flop simply because they have conformed to the other major gaming companies.

Not sure how Kinect is going to do. It'll probably end up supporting itself whatever happens, Microsoft will see to that. But whether it'll really take off is up to the consumers.

It might boil down to how it does against Move. If sales are close or by chance Move outsales it, it will be a giant flop due to how much money they spent on marketing it and pushing it. If it outsales Move by a decent-good margin MS will look it as a win.

I strongly doubt it'll beat MOVE, seeing as it's a much easier piece of shit to sell. Motion control was such a waste, other than Time Crisis 4 I've not enjoyed any of MOVE or KINECT.