There we all are debating whose console is better, and engaging in “mine is bigger than yours” type arguments, but it seems it could all soon be a pointless argument. Some in the gaming industry are looking in to their crystal balls and predicting the end of home consoles after this current generation.
Sandy Duncan, the man who set up and ran the European Xbox business for Microsoft, and now CEO of his own games company, YoYo, recently gave an interview to That Video Game Blog, and was asked where he saw the industry in the next five to ten years.
His response may be a bit of a surprise to those people who like having that solid piece of hardware sitting under their television, as he predicts dedicated consoles, such as the PS3, Wii and Xbox 360 will die out in that short time period.
quote“The industry is fundamentally driven by technology. I think dedicated games devices i.e. consoles (and handhelds) will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high.”
“There is a definite ‘convergence’ of other devices such as set top boxes. There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and a an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be ‘virtualized’ as web services by your content provider.”
The man has a point. Microsoft itself, the company Duncan used to work for, has lost literally billions of dollars since entering the games industry with the original Xbox, and that trend is continuing to this day. Sony are in the same boat, with the Playstation 3 a bit of a loss leader, and being used more to get Blu-ray in to people’s homes than anything else.
Nintendo are making money from the incredible success of the Wii and DS, but whether lightning can strike twice there is open for debate. Which means we could see all thee console manufacturers decide to give up the traditional push to get a dedicated games console in to people’s homes, and it could happen sooner rather than later.
The convergence of technologies that Duncan talks about is already happening, and is sure to get even more widespread. Not only do we have the PS3 and Xbox 360 trying to more like entertainment hubs than games consoles, we have things like Web television growing in popularity on a daily basis.
After reading Duncan’s comments, I myself can see the day when instead of consoles, we’ll have a blend of entertainment hubs and streaming from the Web content doing away with the need for those trusty companions which we load with our favourite disc, cartridge or tape.
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like the several hundred predictions of the "Wii Fad"
The fact is yes making a home entertainment system costs lots of money but the rewards are great, with gaming getting more popular every year the proftability to these companies like Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo get ever greater, sure the PS3 may have set Sony back $10 billion i dunno, but in 5 years they will have made that back and some. Money is not currently in the hardware but in the software and thats where it will stay, so as long as there are games there will be consoles.
I can totally see it going the way he describes. Microsoft have been trying to push it for awhile now.
It will all eventually become web based and as he says you will just have one entertainment box under your TV that does everything.
Another thing ive noticed is the rate technology advances.
Ok so we've got next gen, great. The 360 only uses DL DVD's, this is a big problem. This is meant to be next gen, but developers are having to cut short their games and compress like mad to fit it on a DVD. Now the 360 is limited to DVD's unless microsoft fancy giving everyone a blu-ray player for free.
If they got rid of this hard copy media rubbish, making it web based would hopefully eliminate some limitations put on games developers so they can actually produce next gen games. Because lets be honest, alot of the games that have been seen on the supposid "Next gen" is just plain rubbish.